Brighton vs Manchester United
Brighton’s 3-0 Premier League win over Newcastle was their third consecutive league game to feature over 2.5 goals and equaled their biggest winning margin in the PL under Graham Potter.
Four of Brighton’s last five home league games have seen them concede 3+ goals, a sequence that includes their opening-day 3-1 defeat to Chelsea and last season’s 3-0 reverse against Manchester United. Six of the 14 goals conceded therein came inside the first 30 minutes, and last term, only one team conceded more PL goals (home/away) between 16’-30’.
Interestingly, no team was more prolific during that same 16’-30’ period than Man United (17 goals) last season, but they enter this match after bookending a 14-game unbeaten run in the PL (W9, D5). Having scored in each of their last 14 league fixtures, they also lead the PL H2H stakes (W4, L2), with the last four league meetings all producing over 2.5 goals.
Meanwhile, the ‘Red Devils’ are unbeaten in seven league away matches (W5, D2), winning their last four such games ‘to nil’ while scoring 2+ goals in the process. It’s worth noting, however, that the only defeat across their last seven PL away campaign openers (W4, D2, L1) came against Brighton in 2018/19.
PREDICTION: Brighton 1-3 Manchester United
Crystal Palace vs Everton
Impressively winning at Manchester United, Crystal Palace have taken maximum points from their two opening Premier League matches. They managed just one goal in the 1’-15’ segment last season, but already have two in this period so far this season. The South Londoners also scored over 2.5 goals for the first time in 40 PL matches last time out.
Slow starters last season, the ‘Eagles’ scored just 32.26% of their league goals in the first half and consequently led at HT in just 18.42% of such matches. Roy Hodgson’s men also lost 16 of their 26 matches vs sides who finished above them (W3, D7, L16) – failing to score in 14 of those fixtures.
Two from two Everton head into the weekend second in the table, behind only Leicester City on goal difference. Last week’s 5-2 victory over West Brom was the first time they had netted over 2.5 league goals since a 3-1 victory vs Palace back in February – a run of 14 PL matches. Last week’s win was also the only game across their last eight in the PL in which they held a HT lead.
PREDICTION: Crystal Palace 1-3 Everton
West Brom vs Chelsea
It’s eight goals conceded in two Premier League games for West Brom, as they fell to a 5-2 defeat last time out, shipping five goals in a top-flight match for the first time since 2012/13. They’ve now conceded three second-half goals in both PL fixtures this season, and shipped either side of HT in three of their last four league fixtures.
The Championship’s second-highest home scorers last term (1.91 goals scored per match) will hope to channel some of that form here, but have lost the last three PL H2Hs held at The Hawthorns, losing at HT in two. West Brom also trailed at HT in five of their seven PL home defeats during their last top-flight campaign.
Unlucky Chelsea fell to a 2-0 defeat versus Liverpool last weekend, as they had both a player sent-off and missed a penalty for the first time in a PL game since February 1999. With that result, three of Chelsea’s last four PL matches have now featured over 1.5 second-half goals.
The ‘Blues’ have been goal-friendly on their travels, with the 81 match goals (4.05 on average) seen in their PL away games since the beginning of 2019/20 a division-high during that period. However Chelsea still recorded more PL away wins than all but two sides last term, and led at HT in 66.67% of those victories, just as they did in their opening PL road trip.
You can stake on Chelsea winning this one and there are odds of 1.40 for a win for the Blues on Betpay.
PREDICTION: West Brom 0-4 Chelsea
Burnley vs Southampton
Burnley began their Premier League season with a 4-2 away loss at Leicester City, despite taking the lead. However, it’s still worth noting that they lost only one of 18 applicable games when opening the scoring last term (W14, D3, L1). Conceding first was a major issue though, as they only won once when doing so (W1, D4, L13).
Sean Dyche’s side contest their maiden home match encouraged by the fact they won three of their first four PL home battles last season, only to be defeated by eventual champions Liverpool. However, three of the previous four seasons have actually seen them lose their first PL home game after initially drawing at HT.
Southampton have begun their PL campaign with three consecutive defeats in all competitions, and now risk losing four in a row for the first time since November 2019. They lost 5-2 against Tottenham Hotspur despite taking the lead, and since December 2018 – when Ralph Hasenhüttl took charge – no team has lost more points from winning positions (37).
Defeat at Crystal Palace was Southampton’s first 1-0 PL away loss since December 2018, but it was just their third loss in their last 12 league encounters on the road (W7, D2, L3). However, each of the last two seasons have seen the ‘Saints’ lose their first PL away game, only for them to follow it up with a 2-0 victory in their next away match.
PREDICTION: Burnley 1-1 Southampton
Sheffield vs Leeds
Sheffield United have made a slow start to their second Premier League (PL) season since promotion, with two straight defeats ‘to-nil’. Neither match featured over 2.5 goals, as was the case with eight of their ten first PL matches last season. Their two most recent matches against Leeds in this White Rose derby have also been low on goals, both ending 1-0 (W1, L1).
The poor start is a worrying continuation from last season, where the ‘Blades’ lost their final three matches, and dropped out of the European qualification zone. Additionally, last season saw Sheffield fire the fewest shots of all PL sides (353). On the flip side, two-thirds of their conceded goals arrived in the second half of play.
After conceding the fewest goals (0.76 on average per match) in the Championship last season, Leeds have marked their return to top flight football with back to back 4-3 results (W1, L1). The goal-spree wasn’t totally unexpected though, as four of their last six Championship matches last season featured at least four total goals.
Away from home, Leeds were the Championship’s top scorers last term, with 1.61 goals scored on average per trip. Meanwhile, across all tiers, Leeds have scored at least three goals in four of their last six away league matches, and 64.29% of their goals across those six matches arrived in the second half.
PREDICTION: Sheffield 2-2 Leeds
Tottenham vs Newcastle
A shock defeat for Tottenham here would see them begin a Premier League home campaign with two straight defeats for the first time since 2008. However, they are favourites against last season’s fourth-lowest PL scorers, and curiously, each of Tottenham’s last three clean-sheet home league wins have seen their opener come via an opposition own-goal.
Often able to strike late in victory, Tottenham have scored exactly once beyond the 76th minute mark in three of their last four league wins (all venues). Tottenham’s 60% win rate, from their last five PL games played directly after midweek European commitments (W3, D1, L1), is also a potential boost, with each win in that select group seeing one half produce a score draw.
Newcastle lost an alarming eight of nine applicable PL away matches last season when conceding first (D1, L8). The Tyneside club also earned just one point (from a possible 24) from the eight occasions on which they trailed at HT in away league action last term.
Furthermore, six of Newcastle’s last seven PL away defeats to any team that finished in the top six between 2017 and 2020 have come by a 2+ goal margin. They lost by an average of 3.0 unanswered goals across the last four second halves of games therein within that particular category.
Odds are on Jose Mourinho’s men to get the job done and Betpay offers 1.45 for a Tottenham win.